Alamance County voters approved a $150 million bond package for the Alamance-Burlington school system in November 2018, but both overall enrollment in the school system and the capacity of its school buildings, have declined since then. Enrollment is down 517 students compared to the 2018-2019 school year. And the number of available seats, i.e., “capacity,” has declined at 20 out of 33 schools, excluding the new high school that opened in 2023.
One of the few schools where capacity has actually increased, Garrett Elementary in Mebane, has the tightest proportion of enrollment to capacity – 786 students in a building now listed as accommodating 722.
The school system’s high school capacity, where most of the bond funds were targeted (including $67 million to build Southeast), has been increased by 1,041 students. But the capacity at elementary schools has shrunk by a similar amount, 1,119 students, even though two of those schools got infusions for expansions: Pleasant Grove’s capacity was increased by 31 and South Mebane’s by 95. But capacity at other schools has declined, in some cases dramatically. South Graham’s capacity has been reduced by 288, students, Newlin Elementary by 165, Grove Park by 144.
Middle school capacity has been reduced by 226 seats.
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School board members are scheduled to hear a presentation at their upcoming work session on Tuesday about the latest capacity study conducted for ABSS, as part of what the researchers term a “membership forecast” intended to identify schools that are currently, or likely to be, overcrowded in the near future.
The board had voted in December 2024 to award a $34,000 contract for a capacity and land use study to the Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) at N.C. State University, which also conducted several earlier capacity studies for ABSS. Most recently, a similar enrollment forecast was developed for ABSS several years ago, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic and the statewide school shutdown.
Meanwhile, school board members have hinted that ongoing residential and commercial development in Alamance County is likely to squeeze capacity at ABSS schools.
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School board vice chairman Dan Ingle, who’d helped to lead the campaign for the 2018 bond package, has pointed to the forthcoming Buc-ee’s travel plaza and other projects approved for the Mebane area as the basis for exponential future growth in the county’s population.
“Between 2010 and 2020, Alamance County had a gain of 20,000 people,” Ingle told his fellow board members last year. “When you look at the three [megasites] in the southern part of Alamance, actually right across the line down there [in Chatham, Guilford, and Randolph counties], they’re estimating 100,000 people moving into this area.
“Let’s add Buc-ee’s, two [electric vehicle-related sites], a mega-business over in the eastern part of the county,” Ingle said. “There better be some people doing some planning, real quick, ‘cause these schools are going to be overwhelmed. You’re already starting to see the start of it now. There’ll be a lot more of this going on than we see today. Get ready, it’s coming.”
According to the last Census, Alamance County’s population grew from 151,437 in 2010 to 171,954 in 2020, an increase of 20,517. Alamance County’s growth rate, 13.5 percent, was almost twice the national average of 7.2 percent and significantly above the state’s growth rate of 9.1 percent.
Other school board members have continued to touch on that theme during their comments at meetings since, while remaining tight-lipped publicly about whether they think a new school will be needed in Mebane or elsewhere in the county within the next few years.
While there has been much discussion about the dramatic housing expansion in the county, developers have consistently told local city councils that much of the current housing demand is among two opposite ends of the spectrum that don’t have school-age children: older residents and young singles or young couples.
System-wide capacity and enrollment lower in 2024-25 than in 2018-19
Nevertheless, the latest figures that ABSS provided to the newspaper late last month show that the capacity (i.e., available seats) has been reduced at 15 of the 20 elementary schools since 2018-19. Capacity increased at Andrews, Garrett, and Highland, Pleasant Grove, and South Mebane elementary schools; the latter two were expanded and renovated as part of the 2018 bond package.
The total capacity at the 20 elementary schools has declined by 1,119 seats, from 12,126 during the 2018-19 school year to 11,007 currently available seats (see chart).
Enrollment, however, has declined at the elementary school level by 746 students, from 10,520 students who were enrolled in ABSS elementary schools at the end of the first month of school in 2018-19 to 9,774 elementary school students who were enrolled at the same point in the 2024-25 school year, according to ABSS enrollment reports.
The stated capacity has declined at five of the seven middle schools since 2018-19 but increased at two – Hawfields and Woodlawn middle schools, though neither was expanded as part of the 2018 bond package.
The total capacity at the seven ABSS middle schools has declined by 226 seats, from 6,274 in 2018-19 to 6,074 currently available seats, based on the school system’s latest capacity figures.
Middle school enrollment has declined by 235 students, from 5,230 students enrolled at the end of the first month of the 2018-19 school year to 4,995 middle school students who were enrolled at the same point during the 2024-25 school year.
Capacity and enrollment increased at high schools
Capacity at the seven high schools has since increased by 2,455 seats – in part due to the construction of Southeast High School that opened along N.C. Highway 119 in August 2023 – which the last bond package had been intended to address. School officials had said at the time that a seventh high school was needed to ease overcrowding at Eastern and Southern High School, where much, though not all, of the county’s population growth has been concentrated during the last 10 to 15 years.
The total high school capacity has increased from 6,145 seats in 2018-19 to 8,600 currently available seats at the seven ABSS high schools, the school system’s figures show.
High school enrollment has also increased by 504 students, from 6,682 students enrolled at the end of the first month of 2018-19 to 7,186 students enrolled in ABSS high schools at the end of the first month of the 2024-25 school year.
Then-superintendent Dr. Bill Harrison revealed in August 2017 to a task force that had been established to study ABSS facilities that enrollment at both Eastern and Southern High Schools had outstripped capacity by “500 or 600” students apiece, and construction of a new high school, in conjunction with redistricting the six existing high schools, was the only plausible solution.
In addition to $67 million in funding for the construction of a seventh high school, the 2018 bond package also included approximately $68 million to expand and renovate the then-six existing high schools: $10.9 million to expand to the fine arts building and complete renovations throughout Cummings; $11.7 million to build 7,618-square foot expansion at Eastern; $7.6 million to renovate Graham High School; $20.7 million to expand Southern High School by 27,525 square feet; $12.4 million to build a 7,618-square foot addition at Western; and $4.6 million to renovate Williams High School, based on a breakdown of the projects that Moseley Architects developed for ABSS and presented to the school board in July 2017.
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The bond package also included $8.5 million to expand South Mebane Elementary School to address expected enrollment growth; and $6.7 million for structural repairs and other renovations at Pleasant Grove Elementary School.
When compared to enrollment at the end of the first month of school in 2024-25, the school system’s latest capacity figures appear to indicate enrollment has exceeded capacity at Eastlawn and Garrett elementary schools; and seven elementary schools have fewer than 20 seats available (see accompanying chart).
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This spring, ABSS officials announced that approximately a dozen students in the Adapted Curriculum class (for students with disabilities in the Exceptional Children’s program who typically need individualized attention) would be moved to another elementary school this fall in order to free up space at Garrett Elementary School.
Enrollment at Southern Middle School (820 students) had exceeded its stated capacity (756) by 64 students as of the end of the first month of school in 2024-25, based on the school system’s current capacity figures and monthly enrollment reports.
Even with the expansions that were funded by the 2018 bond package, the latest capacity figures from ABSS show that one high school (Williams) is at capacity and one (Western) has little wiggle room, based on enrollment figures from ABSS for the end of the first month of 2024-25, the most recent period available.
Enrollment at two elementary schools, Eastlawn and Garrett, also appears to have exceeded capacity by 15 and 64 students, respectively; and enrollment at Southern Middle School (820 students) had outstripped its stated capacity (756) by 64 students as of the first month of the previous, 2024-25 school year.
Both the current and 2018-19 capacity figures for ABSS exclude: the Early College housed at Alamance Community College’s Graham campus; Ray Street Academy in Graham, the alternative school that students are typically assigned to for short periods; the Career and Technical Education Center (CTEC) in Burlington, where high school students attend for part of their instructional day; and any mobile units or classrooms used for pre-kindergarten students. (Also excluded from the 2018-19 capacity figures is Southeast High School, which opened in 2023, as well as any mobile units and pre-K classrooms.)
ABSS: Several factors behind fluctuation in capacity
The Alamance News sought to ask school officials this week about why the school building capacities had been reduced since the 2018-19 school year.
“Unfortunately, we can’t speak to who completed the 2018-2019 capacity numbers you referenced, but I do think there are a couple of new factors that would contribute to the different numbers,” ABSS chief communications officer Emily-Lynn Adkins told the newspaper Wednesday.
“We cannot include Pre-K classrooms in our capacity numbers,” Adkins elaborated. “They are not K-5 students. So if a school has [three] Pre-K classrooms, those rooms cannot be counted in the capacity.
Mobile units cannot be included in capacity studies. These are considered temporary and cannot be included in our report.”
Other factors include new class size restrictions that state officials apparently adopted a couple of years ago, which Adkins said “change the number of classrooms needed for grade levels.”
In keeping with their previous studies for ABSS, the latest capacity study that is scheduled to be presented during the school board’s work session on Tuesday afternoon will also include an analysis of other factors that affect future school facility needs, such as: live births in the county; “in-migration,” or people moving to Alamance County; new residential development; job growth; and enrollment trends for charter schools, private schools, and home schools that serve school-age children in the county.
Read our editorial page opinion about the phenomenon of the incredible shrinking ABSS schools amid declining enrollment: https://alamancenews.com/get-ready-for-crowded-schools-rhetoric-despite-declining-abss-enrollment/
