A housing study that Burlington’s city council commissioned this summer seems to have already yielded a framework for what city officials anticipate will be a workable definition of affordable housing in the community.
During a city council work session earlier in December, Cyndi Dancy of Dancy Research presented some preliminary results from this “housing needs assessment,” which she kicked off less than four months ago in tandem with Andy Scott of WolfRiver Advisors.
This inquiry, which is expected to cost the city $37,500, was given a timetable of 20 to 24 weeks when the council authorized the endeavor on August 20. Since then, Dancy insisted that she and Scott have done much in pursuit of their ultimate goal of surveying Burlington’s housing market “to illustrate gaps in available housing by cost and affordability levels.”
During the council’s work session, Dancy said that she has nearly completed the study’s initial data collection component, which includes the accumulation of relatively up-to-date demographic figures for the city. She added that these numbers, which come largely from federal census figures from 2022, show that Burlington’s population has grown roughly 11.4 percent in the last five years. The highest gains, as a share of the city’s total population, have reportedly been among people in their teens and their 70s. These increases have been offset, however, by a drop of 961 residents between 20 and 29 years of age.
Dancy said that her research has also revealed that 17,838 of the city’s residents are employed outside of Burlington and another 6,208 work within the city, while 28,584 out-of-towners commute to jobs inside Burlington’s municipal limits.
In the meantime, Dancy said she has obtained some census data to come to grips with the adequacy of Burlington’s housing stock. Among other things, these figures have shown that the city boasted a total of 23,883 residential units in 2023 – or some 7.2 percent more than it had five years earlier. Dancy added that 45 percent of the city’s residences were rental apartments, with an overall vacancy rate of about 5.5 percent. The city’s owner-occupied dwellings, on the other hand, had .9 percent vacancy rate.
When broken down by home values, the figures revealed significantly more residences at certain price points.
[Story continues below chart.]
“There’s a lot of housing stock in the midrange,” she added, “from $100,000 to $150,000 and from $200,000 to $300,000.”
Dancy said that her the next phase of her study will consist of data analysis necessary to determine the precise need for affordable housing in Burlington. This process will include comparison of federal income data with the figures she has obtained for Burlington’s housing stock. It will also consider the “economic dynamics” that may shape this demand in the future.
Another important factor in this analysis will be the projected growth in Burlington’s housing stock. Dancy said that, on this score, the city seems to be in rather enviable position.
“Burlington is very fortunate in that there is a lot in the pipeline both for single family and multifamily homes,” she added. “As for the availability of homes…there’s a lot in the middle but not a lot toward the lower end.”
Dancy went on to note that her final report in February will contain a thorough accounting of the city’s housing stock along with “a housing needs model” to address the demand for affordable homes. The report will feature a summary of how public transit may affect housing and the pressures coming to bear on housing availability.
What all this will ultimately amount to, according to Burlington’s city manager Craig Honeycutt, is a set of practical criteria that the city will be able to use to encourage the development of affordable housing in the community.
“We are trying to define what ‘affordable’ means to Burlington,” Honeycutt went on to explain during the work session, “and this will give us that specific definition.”
